Sunday, October 25, 2015

Gazing at Stars Backwards - Russia in Syria


Russia’s show of force in Syria is intended to assert Russian power and impress geopolitical stargazers.  But look through the telescope from the other end.

Only 10th largest among world economies, Russia’s economy is about 15% smaller than Italy’s and roughly half that of Germany’s economy (the Euro area economy is 7 times larger than Russia’s) (http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/GDP-ranking-table).  Russia's economy is also shrinking.

In such circumstances, imagine Italy dominating the military and political process in Syria, or imagine Italy’s Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi—who is critical of EU sanctions on Russia--threatening, if only in economic terms, to unilaterally re-impose Italy’s authority over its traditional sphere of influence in Europe.

Is Russia's seeming success due to an authentic projection of power or are we looking through the wrong end of the telescope?

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