MH17 - The Rule of Chance

The biggest crisis in Putin's early career was the sinking of the Submarine Kursk.  The Kursk malfunctioned or there was human error.  Soviet leaders first refused international assistance and lied about the circumstances of the catastrophe.  They pressed their luck managing the event and with the truth.  Putin was not involved in the sequence of events in the sinking, but it happened on his watch and it contributed to the collapse in the Russian people's confidence in public institutions.

The destruction of MH17 is on Putin.  The downing of MH17 tore away the mask of Russian deniability of involvement in Ukraine and resulted in nearly 300 innocent deaths, not to mention the deaths of thousands of innocent Ukrainians lost in the civil conflict.  Although the Dutch report released today does not assign blame, the facts and circumstances make clear that the chain of accountability for the catastrophe lies with Russia and with Putin personally.  Meanwhile, Russia continues to issue fabricated evidence to "prove" MH17 was shot down by anyone else but Russia.  By launching a war in eastern Ukraine, Putin invited unexpected, catastrophic events, as will always happen when leaders are reckless and overreach and lie.  Putin has had an extraordinary run of good luck.  But it was chance.  With each additional role of the dice, Putin presses his luck. It could be Syria, or a moment in the next sequence of events, but the risk of catastrophe is all but certain.