A Taunt Too Far: Putin's Next Big Mistake

President Putin of Russia is famously regarded as a masterful tactician who keeps his adversaries on their toes through careful calculation and unpredictable behavior.  Putin himself cultivates an air of infallibility.

Taking the evidence of his actions over last twelve months, one can be forgiven for wondering what his tactical mastery is supposed to accomplish.  But facts aside, maybe he just gives himself a lot of latitude in measuring success.  To be fair, in his bruising match with the West, it is sometimes hard to tell who is ahead on points.

That said, Putin now needs to play his game to perfection because the weight of his miscalculations is so precariously balanced it could cascade into catastrophe for Russia and a giant headache for everyone else.

Given Putin’s record, here are five miscalculations experience tells us he is likely to make that will get him into trouble before the Russian general election in fall 2016.

Fabrications that don’t gel.  Well and good to fabricate lies you can get away with, but getting caught at it repeatedly erodes credibility and undermine one’s authority.  Clumsy Russian fabrications about what really happened to Malaysia Fight MH17 shocked Europe and arguably did more to alienate Europeans than the fighting in Ukraine.  Russian media fabrications about what is happening in eastern Ukraine—including such horror stories as Ukrainian troops harvesting POW organs or a child being publicly crucified in a town square by Ukrainian soldiers--have eroded Russian credibility about anything at all.  From Putin’s perspective, the big lie is that Russian soldiers are not fighting and dying in eastern Ukraine.  When the realization finally hits home among Russians, as it already has with everyone else, Putin’s pedestal may wobble dangerously.  The longer the lies go on, the more dangerous it will become to Putin’s political survival.

Cheating too often.  In 2011 and 2012 Russians poured into the streets by the thousands to protest election fraud by the United Russia party headed by Putin and Putin’s announcement that he planned to run for President again in 2012.  Even with pervasive election fraud, United Russia’s popularity dropped 15 percentage points.  While Putin’s popularity seems secure at the moment, economic issues and local corruption continue to erode support for the United Russia party.  A repeat of heavy-handed election fraud in 2016 may undue United Russia and Putin’s grip on power.

Start a fight.  Putin is under pressure as the fighting in eastern Ukraine drags on because it is enormously costly to Russia to underwrite the ongoing conflict and support economically the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts held by Russian-led separatists.  Putin may be tempted to launch a new offensive before winter to restart the Minsk II “peace” process or to carve out a larger space for the two separatist entities to make them more sustainable.  The sooner the better it would seem.  However, attacking Ukraine this fall offers little strategic gain, since the additional territory is of little value relative to the high cost of securing it, and the time when Putin could dictate the terms of any “peace” agreement are long over.

One reason Putin may be tempted though is to rally patriotic support for himself and his United Russia party before the elections.  It would require, however, first, winning the fight, and, second, sustaining the momentum into late next year when the elections will take place.  A tough challenge.  The last time Putin tried it was last year when Russian-led separatists appeared to overrun eastern Ukraine and Putin first raised the idea of creating a new Novorossiya extending across southern Ukraine to the border of Moldova.  Then the separatists were pushed back into a sliver of land on Ukraine’s eastern border, and Putin hasn’t mentioned Novorossiya since.  Another match of that caliber would finish Putin off as a geopolitical pugilist.  Promoting Novorossiya also didn’t win any fans other than the few far right Russians who already liked the idea.  Most Russians thought it was just plain dumb, and Ukrainians in those regions are still digging trenches to fight the Russians if they attempt it again. 

Premature declaration that the worst is over—oops, already did that one.  In May Putin declared the worst of the economic crisis for Russia was over.  Since then the economic collapse in Russia has accelerated.  The Russian economy declined 2.2% in QI of 2015 and 4.6% in QII.  Russian is now officially in recession.  Putin’s economic strategy of late seems to consist mostly of bulldozing contraband EU cheese in order to demonstrate he is serious about nurturing domestic industry.  It’s not a pretty picture.  A lot will break bad in the economy between now and next year’s elections, raising the question how much economic mismanagement the Russian people can endure.

Gloating and empty showmanship.  When he annexed Crimea Putin put on a huge show glorifying the return of Crimea to Mother Russia, culminating in a showy celebration of patriotism in Moscow with a host of Russian politicos and celebrities.  Overly impressed with his own rhetoric, Putin engaged in a series of verbal faux pas that alarmed his global audience, including that Russia had historic claims to just about everyone else’s territories, that Russian soldiers had taken Crimea after having denied it, and that everyone should remember that Russia had nuclear arms.  Not a man to quietly savor success, Putin rubbed salt in new wounds by trumpeting his violations of Ukrainian sovereignty and international law, increasing everyone else’s resolve to resist Russian aggression.  The Russian emperor may prove to have no cloths if he raises the rhetorical temperature again to gain support leading into elections, further exposing his imperialist ambitions.  The Russian people are already wondering about the price they are paying for such grand gestures.

Don’t do what you promise.  They applauded Crimea, but Putin disappointed his  followers who expected the Russian army to roll into Kyiv last summer.  He disappointed them again when he failed to consolidate the little success he had in eastern Ukraine and absorb the separatist areas or at least establish a Novorossiya framework.  Putin’s declarations to act as the protector of all Russians ring hollow now because he didn’t follow through in Ukraine, the Baltics, or elsewhere, and he hardly concerns himself with the misery of the half million Ukrainian “Russians” trapped in Donetsk and Luhansk.   Lack of progress in eastern Ukraine is eroding moral among separatists, which is breeding discontent in eastern Ukraine and in Russia.  A disaffected patriotic far right may emerge to disrupt Putin’s carefully stage-managed election process.

Plain old miscalculation.  Still, the most obvious problem is simple miscalculation.  Putin thought no one would notice if he seized Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine, that the Ukrainians wouldn’t fight, that all Ukrainian politicians could be bought, that the people of Ukraine could be played like Russian puppets.  He continues to believe that the Europeans will forget about Malaysian Flight MH17, or that little tactical nibbles here and there will not be noticed.  There may no longer be any large strategic goals within his grasp now that everyone is alert to his machinations, but that doesn’t mean he has the good judgment not to tempt fate with little gestures that ignite a greater conflict.

Like a playground bully who thinks he can win a fight by taking blows longer than anyone else, Putin’s survival strategy has serious flaws.  It is just a matter of time and a taunt too far.

DirkMattheisen.blogspot.com