Photo Credit: Euromaidan Press
Following my article in Euromaidan Press, Do Sanctions Against Russia Work?, the New York Post has a good article in the same vein entitled When Sanctions Work--And Why They Fail. To be clear, the author, Ralph Peters, writes that sanctions against Russia are working and should be continued (while he argues sanctions against North Korea and Iran are another story). He writes regarding sanctions against Russia (underlining added),
"Contrary to counter-factual claims, economic sanctions imposed on Russia after successive invasions of its neighbors have had a profound effect ...Sanctions have bitten Russia for two reasons. First, they coincided felicitously with a global collapse in energy prices. Putin’s economic monoculture relies on income from gas and oil exports. The double-whammy of cheap gas and Western sanctions hit Russia hard, causing Putin to pause his war in Ukraine and now to cut his defense budget. But the second reason is that even Putin has to answer to his people at some level. And while Russia’s been under sanctions, the poverty rate doubled, inflation soared, pensions declined dramatically in real value and trade collapsed. For months, Russian newspapers insisted that there was no shortage of medicines — which told Russia-watchers there were medicine shortages. Sanctions alone won’t bring Putin down, but they’ve imposed a painful cost for his bad behavior. As evidence mounts of Russian attempts to subvert our democracy, it would be wanton capitulation to remove the sanctions now"He writes as well,
"...in Russia sanctions are frustrating Putin’s hostile ambitions, crippling his ability to modernize his military machine. Discontent is deepening, if slowly: The old maxim that Russians unite in their suffering breaks down when Russians see their leaders and favored oligarchs leading lives of unprecedented opulence."As I wrote in my original post, sanctions have had a substantial impact in containing Russia aggression--Moscow does not dictate what Kyiv's domestic and international polices should be, its hold on Crimea is recognized by no one, its dreams of Novorossiya across southern Ukraine are dead, sanctions are responsible for 1.5% to 6% of Russia's economic decline, and Russia's prospects for significant economic growth are dim.
There was one point though that I failed to make in my original article that is echoed by Ralph Peters when he writes that sanctions are a tool not a stand-alone solution. Sanctions are essential to tilt the balance in favor of Ukraine, but the real reason Ukraine has been able to stand up to Russia's aggression is because its civil society would not submit to intimidation and violence by either the corrupt Yanukovych government or by Putin's Russia, and because of the stubborn, valorous defense of Ukraine by its armed volunteer brigades and military. As long as Ukrainian society stands firm, Russia has little prospect of achieving its aims, and sanctions are an essential aid in helping Ukraine remain a free and independent nation. However, even now, Ukraine's civil society and its military continue to suffer daily from Russian aggression. So far in 2017, 21 civilians have been killed and 95 wounded in daily fighting with Russian-led forces along the line of contact with the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions. In March alone the Ukrainian military suffered 27 killed and 189 wounded. Russia's aggression toward Ukraine and other countries is reason to sustain and expand sanctions until Russia reverses its behavior. As both Ralph Peters and I write, sanctions take time but they are taking a heavy toll on Russia and in time Ukrainian resolve and sanctions will end Russia aggression.
