Waist Deep in the Big Muddy - Putin in Syria

It’s tempting to think Putin has a strategy in Syria.  But he doesn’t.

Having decided to step down in Ukraine (for the moment) and a fitful cessation of hostiles taking hold, Putin knows he needs a new distraction for the Russian people, and not the least for his military, which is running on nerves at this point but doesn’t have a plan.  The last thing Putin wants is a void that will give the Russian people a chance to reflect on what the last year has done to them or that will be filled by others, such as decommissioned troops.  The game is next year’s parliamentary elections when Putin’s United Russia party, which does not enjoy the protection of Putin’s cult of personality, will almost certainly face a deeply disenchanted electorate.  An eroding United Russia base will spell trouble for Putin in 2018.

Supporting Assad fits Putin’s narrative of defending Russian interests against Western aggression, but still has the kind of ambiguity that Putin likes where just possibly he is doing something in the spirit of international cooperation but you just don’t know.  However, ratcheting up support for Assad just now serves no strategic purpose.  Putin needs economic relief.  As the temperature goes down in Ukraine, raising the temperature in Syria doesn’t move Putin’s chess pieces forward.  Backing a regime that is unlikely to ever recover lost territory or legitimacy is pointless and costly. 

If the purpose is to court Iran, the timing is odd, since Iran doesn't need a new irritant with the West at the moment it is seeking to improve economic relations and move forward a nuclear proliferation deal—Putin needs take heed from Iran that improving economic relations will take something more than belligerence. 

Unless, of course, Putin’s purpose is to court the Iranian intelligence and military services as a counter-weight to the West-leaning Iranian moderates, which would make things really interesting.

It would be quintessential Putin, to lend support to the Iranian nuclear deal while courting the Iranian conservatives in order to keep his tactical options open.  In this scenario, refugees in Europe are just the icing on the cake.

With no strategy in mind, Putin is keeping his pawns busy while waiting for the opportunity to advance his knights and bishops.  Like the old Pete Seeger song from the 1960s, Waist Deep in the Big Muddy, “…the big fool just says to push on."