U.S. Census Bureau Index of Economic Activity Release June 2, 2025--Trade Weights on US Economic Outlook

The US Census Bureau released on June 2 its economic indicators thru April 2025,

The long view is that nothing seems to change much over time, with the exception of the financial crisis in 2008/2009 and the negative effect of COVID in 2020 (with a strong bounce back in 2021/22 at the beginning of President Biden's term).

But looking at the short term, a lot is happening.  The overall index fell nearly 1% (-0.91%)

But the real story is why it fell.  Generally, economic activity was weak.  For instance, Advanced Wholesale Inventories, Advanced Retail Inventories, and Construction Spending were 0.0%, -0.1%, and -0.4% from March to April, respectively.

But Advanced International Trade: Goods fell a whopping -46.0%, while Advanced New Orders: Durable Goods (not shown on chart) fell -6.3%. 

With economic activity weak overall, clearly, the decline in trade-related economic activities will have a pronounced effect going forward.  Look for economic activity in later months to fall even more.

For a closer look at the numbers, go to,

https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/