How long can Russia afford its war on Ukraine?
That's an important question because a country can afford a war only as long as its economy can afford the cost.
Initially anticipating a short, easy invasion of Ukraine, Russia has instead, after more than two years, either brought on itself a long war of attrition or a war of sudden, catastrophic strategic collapse, both of which are extremely expensive.
Recent articles (see below) on Russia's economy paint a complex picture. While Russia appears to be doing well at the moment, with GDP growth greater than most developed economies, it is constrained by falling financial resources and limits on its economic growth that are becoming acute.
Future economic prospects--and what effect these will have on the war--are unknowable, but Russia's growing economic fragility increases the prospect of an economic or war-related event that, in turn, triggers a catastrophic financial or economic crisis outside the control of Russian authorities; an event, for instance, like the current, evolving Ukrainian invasion of Russia's Kursk region, with the displacement of nearly 200,000 Russians. In fact, Russian authorities' disregard for consequences makes such an event nearly certain.
Russia Economy Set for Sharp Slowdown After Second Quarter
Four signals regarding Russian economic problems in the “war of attrition”
Russia Economy Set for Sharp Slowdown After Second Quarter
Russia Could See Severe Recession Within a Year, Berkley Economist Says
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