Tuesday, May 23, 2023

How Russia staged fake anti-Ukraine protests in Paris, Brussels and The Hague (Le Monde)

Fake Pro-Russia Protests Across Europe

This video report from Le Monde (in English) is excellent and focuses on Russia's other war front, misinformation--persuading people to believe what is untrue in order to create chaos and disrupt its opponent's effectiveness (even when the opponent doesn't realize that it is in conflict with Russia or does not yet care about the issue).  

Video investigation: How Russia staged fake anti-Ukraine protests in Paris, Brussels and The Hague

Wednesday, May 3, 2023

Russia's Botched False Flag Drone Attack on the Kremlin

                                    

According to Russian sources, Ukraine attacked the Kremlin last night with two drones, allegedly targeting Putin's residence.  There are abundant videos of the attack on Twitter, Telegram, and other media platforms.

There are equally abundant reasons to doubt the story.  To begin, Russia has provided no evidence for the claim that the drones were Ukrainian or that Putin was the target.

At least one drone appears in videos to have hit the roof of a Kremlin building, doing minor damage.  What could Ukraine have hoped to accomplish with such a small explosive device--significant destruction or the assassination of Putin would have been highly improbable?

Equally improbable is the idea that Ukraine would have carried out the attack to signal to Russia the risk of a potentially more significant attack or to disrupt Russia's May 9 military celebrations.  What would be the point of an advance warning?  As with Ukraine's attack on the Kerch bridge or recent attacks on Crimean fuel depots, Ukraine does not do small demonstration threats.  Ukraine is conducting a war of self-preservation against a Russian invasion of its territory.

A curious feature of the drone attack, visible in the videos, is that there were two men on the roof at the time the building was hit.

What were they doing there?  Some commentators suggest these are security guards attempting to defend against the drone attack.  It seems, however, an ineffective way to counter a drone attack.  And, why are they on that building and not on other roofs visible in the videos?  Why didn't the drones activate the anti-aircraft missile batteries that are all over Moscow?  A possible and more likely alternative explanation is that these were security guards or firefighters pre-positioned on that roof to put out the fire from the staged drone attack before the fire did serious damage.  No FSB officer wants to be responsible for burning down the Kremlin.

If not Ukraine, then who?  Small provocations or diversions do suit the Kremlin's playbook.  The Kremlin often carries out small, containable acts of aggression to rally Russians around the flag as a prelude to greater domestic oppression or new attacks on foreign targets.

Most likely this false flag is to ensure that the Russian people do not question their leadership during the sensitive period of the May 9 military celebrations, many of which have been canceled this year--Kremlin and provincial leaders claim due to the security risk of Ukrainian terrorist attacks.

Expect more of the same rhetoric from the Kremlin in the coming days, as well as additional domestic oppression and, if that isn't enough to rally Russians, expect more serious Kremlin false-flag provocations.