The Russian Federation is eroding militarily, financially, economically, demographically, and culturally (societal values). Its collapse is inevitable because it is set on a course of self-extinction. In the five areas mentioned, Russia is expending more than it can replace.
Whether your point of reference is Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson's Why Nations Fail, or Peter Heather and John Rapley's Why Empires Fall, or Peter Zeihan's The End of the World is Just the Beginning.
Militarily, Russia is losing more than it can replace in terms of vehicles and personnel. It may perhaps have yet enough to lay waste to a greater portion of Ukraine, but its diminishing military resources will never be enough to conquer all of Ukraine, and it will never rebuild its military due to its overall decline.
Financially, Russia is spending far more than it has. Many regional governments in Russia are bankrupt, and at the federal level, there is not enough money to bail out the regional governments because energy exports have collapsed due to sanctions and Ukraine's missile and drone attacks on Russian energy production and distribution. No other nation, even China, is going to bail out Russia because they are all watching and calculating the slow financial collapse of Russia.
Closely related to Russia's financial crisis is its economic decline. Other than oil and gas and agricultural production, Russia doesn't produce anything that the world buys. Its manufacturing and technical capacity is too limited and often out-of-date--Russian oil and gas production is heavily dependent on foreign technology.
Demographically, Russia is in rapid decline. The additional impact of the war on Russian demographics is substantial. Over 1 million Russians have died or have been severely wounded. These casualties are the working-age men (and women) that Russia relies on to drive the economy.
Culturally (societal values), Russia has a growing problem. The people of Russia are growing impatient with Putin's war as the consequences affect them; for instance, through gasoline shortages and blackouts. Leading former supporters of the special military operation (war) are beginning to express frustration. And as the hundreds of thousands of war veterans return home, the Russian government will not be able to meet their expectations.
I've chosen not to rehash the particulars of each of the points above that will erode and eventually--sooner rather than later--collapse the Russian state. But here are some of recent articles that explore each of the areas that I wrote about.
Kost Elisevick--https://kostelisevich.com/2025/09/23/putins-end-of-days/
Reuben F. Johnson the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation -- https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/the-collapse-of-russia-has-just-begun/ar-AA1J475i
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marktemnycky/2025/10/08/how-the-war-in-ukraine-has-sparked-a-demographic-crisis-in-russia/
Foreign Affairs--https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/cracks-russias-war-economy#
National Security Journal--https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/the-collapse-of-russia-has-just-begun/
Mikhail Khodorkovsky--https://www.msn.com/en-ie/politics/international-relations/i-m-a-russian-dissident-living-in-london-putin-knows-the-end-is-coming-soon/ar-AA1Pr497?ocid=BingNewsVerp
