Dr. Feng Yujun has written an intriguing article on Russian history and culture in the context of China-Russia relations. The article is most interesting for what history tells us about Russia's war in Ukraine and what is likely to happen next.
Dr. Feng Yujun is a Professor and Vice Dean of the Institute of International Studies and Director at the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.
Some of the highlights of Dr. Feng Yujun's article follow but the whole article is worth reading.
Dr. Feng Yujun writes that when Russia goes to war and loses, it results in social conflict in Russia and the collapse of the existing regime. Russia's current war in Ukraine, which has failed badly, is therefore likely to be followed by conflict and regime change in Russia. He writes,
"In history, the failure of international conflicts often leads to subversive changes within Russia. The failure of the Crimean War in 1856 led to its Emancipation reform. The failure of the Russo-Japanese War in 1905 sparked the 1905 Revolution. The defeat in World War I led to the February and October Revolutions. The failure of the war in Afghanistan was also an important factor in the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Today, this war is also likely to become a major turning point in Russia's development."
Internal conflict in Russia is driven, Dr. Feng Yujun writes, by the nature of Russian imperialism, which is mired in Russian colonialism and leaves Russia vulnerable in a world where strong rival nations will out-complete Russia,
"The strategic competition between China and the US focuses more on technological innovation, financial capabilities, and the influence on global governance, while Russians are still most concerned with occupying territory and land, and controlling resources. This war is not just Putin's war, but also the Russian nation's war, constructed by the “obsession” of the Russian Empire in their mentality. The majority of Russians still hold outdated ideas, and it is precisely these old ideas being brought up again in the current global circumstance that have led to the Russia-Ukraine war. Of course, the consequences of this war will eventually be borne by the entire Russian state and nation."
Despite the professor's dubious unitary history of early Kyivan Rus and Muscovy, more recent events described by Dr. Feng Yujun provide insight into Russia's contemporary nature, most interestingly what Russian society lacks that makes it so dangerous, things that are currently evident in Russia's behavior in Ukraine,
"In the 1920s, U.S. historian Mary Platt Parmele pointed out in A Short History of Russia that Russia needed to do three things: "With such a vast territory, an incalculable national wealth, the most loyal, simple and diligent peasant class, a deep sense of national pride and strong patriotism, what else does Russia need? Only three things: to cast out cruelty, to effect homogeneity, to establish a government which shall be just." However, after a century, the three things remain unfinished."
In the 1990s immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia attempted liberal and democratic reforms. Even this Dr. Feng Yujun writes is fought with risk,
"In Russian history, every modernization movement has been overshadowed by subsequent reactionary movements. After Peter the Great and Catherine the Great's reforms came a wave of reactionary movements. After Alexander II's reforms came a wave of reactionary movements led by Nicholas I. During the Soviet era, after Khrushchev's reforms, there was a long period of stagnation under Brezhnev's reactionary rule for 17 years. This is the complex and paradoxical nature of history."
Despite the lessons of history, Russia, Dr. Feng Yujun points out, remains a dangerously aggressive nation. That aggression is deeply ingrained in Russia's political culture and society. Ukraine (and Belarus) bear the brunt of Russia's colonialism, authoritarianism, and aggression,
"Russians have always believed that they are the best representatives of the entire Slavic peoples, and have the ability and obligation to protect the entire Slavic peoples. This set of ideas largely induced World War I. As Frederick Engels said, "Pan-Slavic unity is either pure fantasy, - or a Russian whip."
"There is a strong Messianic complex in Russia's social ideology, with Russians considering Eastern Orthodoxy as the most authentic form of Christianity, while Catholicism and Protestantism have deviated from the original teachings. Russians believe that they have a great "mission" to save the Christian world and all of humanity. This strong sense of mission provides internal motivation for Russia's drive towards greatness, but it also fosters chauvinistic tendencies towards weaker nations and encourages Russia's massive expansion. Russia often uses the name of rescuing other nations to suppress them, and its colonialism, unlike the British and French colonization which was for economic gain, was an unlimited greed for land, killing and occupation."
Dr. Feng Yujun concludes with a warning that encapsulates Putin's strategic mistake of invading Ukraine but also its destructive potential,
"Russia's main source of international influence is not its cultural soft power or economic power, but rather its destructive capabilities."
"From the 2008 Russia-Georgia war to the 2014 Crimea crisis and the current Russia-Ukraine Conflict, they are all results of Russia's imperialist tendencies."
"When Russia is in a favorable position, strategic errors may occur, but when it is in trouble, it will adopt unexpected measures to regain strength and rise again."
