Photo Credit: @JuliaDavisNews
Insight into Putin's End-State from Mark Galeotti
Mark Galeotti has an incisive article in the Dutch outlet RAAMOP RUSSLAND on the key frailty of Putin's regime. Despite seemingly having played his hand well over twenty years, Putin has reached an end-state where only oppression can keep him in power.
As Galeotti writes, the current Russia is "...already beginning to grind and groan under the pressure of economic stagnation, international impasse and a lack of long-term investment and vision." The economic stagnation and international impasse were not inevitable. They are the consequence of bad choices made each step of the way by Putin that shrunk economic opportunity and sank foreign relations, foremost his decision to seize Crimea from Ukraine, interfere in other countries' domestic affairs, and a trail of state-sanctioned murders of Putin's opponents both in Russia and in neighboring countries.
These twenty years, Putin has not succeeded in strengthening Russia, as some believe, but only in enriching himself and his friends and preserving his power while the state rotted around him. The Russian state is fragile and failing because, at this late stage, Putin can only hope to stay in power by closing all outlets for discontent that may threaten his hold on power. Hence a host of new oppressive laws against protest, social media, and foreign influence.
Now, Putin is left, Galeotti writes, with an oppressive police apparatus led by men who "...lack the experience and, unkind souls might say, the wit for the role, but no one would question their loyalty to Putin or their willingness to do whatever it takes to preserve the regime." In a detailed analysis, Galeotti lays out the problem. Putin can find people to do his bidding but he can't build a resilient state with opportunists and criminal actors. Putin's and civil society's interests have diverged, and all that remains is for civil society to find its voice.
